Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 37.578968 40.876552 44.495068 48.791758 53.796453 59.494816 66.551866
2025-03-09 32.369473 36.666358 41.713466 48.188849 56.446263 66.879341 81.512940
2025-03-16 28.724401 33.307642 38.911647 46.453530 56.654628 70.505876 91.829051
2025-03-23 27.395919 32.471793 38.920221 48.017281 61.089646 80.277328 113.183995
2025-03-30 25.665930 30.890443 37.709775 47.665853 62.641453 86.020737 129.961284
2025-04-06 24.136296 29.406487 36.437232 46.996471 63.507129 90.724151 146.463721
2025-04-13 22.524768 27.677407 34.657399 45.354166 62.559905 92.110045 156.898770
2025-04-20 22.070560 27.476204 34.974899 46.838800 66.816456 103.573703 194.632449
2025-04-27 21.575872 27.170342 35.096032 48.002580 70.684426 115.317857 241.201484
2025-05-04 21.027498 26.742874 34.989310 48.765763 73.936109 126.733464 297.126277
2025-05-11 20.250666 25.934565 34.242479 48.378956 74.955956 133.488911 344.729671
2025-05-18 19.475602 25.085142 33.372737 47.693263 75.280220 138.696200 393.062440
2025-05-25 18.648694 24.149857 32.360159 46.757256 75.155630 143.290400 449.470906
2025-06-01 17.960357 23.392191 31.587354 46.187935 75.745576 150.179532 534.953746
2025-06-08 17.106362 22.344727 30.291674 44.565788 73.855105 149.539252 573.509608
2025-06-15 16.948693 22.343116 30.671475 46.027722 78.963113 171.873590 882.747256
2025-06-22 16.452455 21.795778 30.123400 45.699345 79.941460 181.621995 1149.342521
2025-06-29 15.935738 21.193958 29.450906 45.073599 80.119528 188.790735 1468.723594
2025-07-06 15.285383 20.359454 28.350296 43.536827 77.873399 186.191584 1587.667191
2025-07-13 15.197982 20.403263 28.727013 44.926153 83.150979 216.012797 3615.340161
2025-07-20 15.058473 20.356298 28.943197 46.013987 87.913338 248.098890 14432.730137
2025-07-27 14.863085 20.209975 28.976442 46.726782 91.835353 280.419823 NaN
2025-08-03 14.511824 19.797308 28.519425 46.365571 92.642220 296.937301 NaN